Government shutdown 2024: Congress is on track to keep the government open — for now.

In excellent news, Congress is on monitor to move a short-term funding invoice that may hold the federal government open and stop a shutdown forward of a deadline this week. In doubtlessly extra regarding information, nonetheless, the invoice solely postpones a full debate on authorities spending, establishing what could possibly be a very contentious funding combat within the new yr.

This week, the Home authorised a two-step short-term funding bill, often known as a seamless decision, or CR. The invoice will hold the federal government funded at present ranges and doesn’t embody any new spending cuts. It additionally doesn’t comprise new spending requests, which means no new Israel help — which has bipartisan help — or Ukraine help, which has some Republican backing however is opposed by different conservatives.

The invoice’s method is uncommon in that it units two completely different deadlines for determining a long-term funding plan: Funding for some sections of presidency — transportation, housing, vitality, agriculture, and veterans’ affairs — will expire January 19, and funding for different sections — together with protection — will expire February 2. The laws now heads to the Senate, which is anticipated to approve it.

Home Republicans’ objective behind proposing this staggered method is to forestall the passage of a large omnibus bundle that features all of the spending payments on the similar time. Republicans declare they’re against omnibuses attributable to their scale, and the truth that they have a tendency to power a fast vote on a big swath of funding proper earlier than the winter holidays. Through the use of what they’ve described as a “laddered” method, the GOP hopes to have extra time to barter over particular person payments and their particular priorities. The long-term objective is to make use of that course of to make deep cuts into authorities spending, an effort opposed by Democrats and the Biden White Home.

Within the close to time period, lawmakers’ actions bode nicely for making certain that businesses and authorities providers keep open and practical, and that authorities employees don’t expertise disruptions to their workflow or paychecks. Very like it has performed previously, nonetheless, Congress’ determination to embrace a CR will permit it to easily procrastinate on the challenges of negotiating last spending payments — and merely postpone the potential for a shutdown till 2024.

The dynamics establishing a January shutdown combat, briefly defined

The breakdown of this week’s Home vote forecasts the conflicts but to come back over the passage of full-year spending payments.

The CR handed this week 336-95, with substantial Democratic help and backing from some Republicans. Probably the most conservative members of the GOP caucus, nonetheless, pilloried the laws. “It incorporates no spending reductions, no border safety, and never a single significant win for the American individuals,” the far-right Freedom Caucus stated in a press release.

Proper-wing opposition to spending is one hurdle that Home Speaker Mike Johnson should proceed navigating as he tries to search out an settlement on the full-year payments that may fulfill the whole thing of his convention. Doing so might show not possible, forcing Johnson to revisit the technique he took with the CR, crafting a bundle acceptable to Democrats with a purpose to win their help.

Taking such a path might show perilous to his speakership, nonetheless. Beforehand, Republicans ousted former Speaker Kevin McCarthy for working with Democrats to move a CR to maintain the federal government open. This time round, lawmakers stated they wouldn’t but do the identical to Johnson since he nonetheless hasn’t had adequate time on the job to deal with conservative priorities.

“I’ve been on the job lower than three weeks, proper? I can’t change, I can’t flip an plane provider in a single day,” Johnson told CNN.

That doesn’t imply threats to Johnson’s management gained’t emerge once more subsequent yr, nonetheless. A few of his caucus’ right-most members have already begun to drift plans to say their energy by making procedural votes difficult, and others have advised that their persistence with Johnson isn’t infinite. As Freedom Caucus member and Virginia Rep. Morgan Griffith told Politico, “I believe most individuals are prepared to present him a while, however we have to see one thing completely different.”

Johnson signaled {that a} showdown was seemingly coming over spending in 2024 as Republicans sought to push extra of their priorities within the particular person payments, whereas additionally signaling that the GOP might have to make some compromises. “We’re not surrendering, we’re preventing, however it’s important to be clever about selecting the fights,” Johnson told CNN. Additional including to the uncertainty, he added that he wouldn’t help any extra CRs — which means if Congress can’t get to a full yr spending deal, the federal government might shut down subsequent yr.

Democrats and Republicans are nonetheless actually far aside on spending priorities

There are key variations that may must be labored out on the full-year payments: conservative Republicans need main cuts, together with to international help, whereas some Republicans and plenty of Democrats need new cash for Israel and Ukraine. Democrats typically wish to increase environmental and schooling funding; many within the GOP (in addition to some extra reasonable Democrats) need extra money for border safety. In lots of instances, the wishes of those teams aren’t simply completely different, they’re oppositional.

Lawmakers should determine it out, nonetheless. Every year, Congress is meant to approve 12 appropriations payments that hold businesses and Congress funded by the top of September. In the event that they don’t — or in the event that they don’t move a short-term funding extension — the federal government shuts down. The Republican-led Home has already handed seven of those payments, all of which fund the federal government at considerably decrease ranges than the agreed-upon limits in a debt ceiling deal. The Democrat-led Senate has handed three payments at ranges which are extra corresponding to the boundaries within the settlement — and which have bipartisan help in that chamber. The 2 chambers will in the end need to reconcile their variations of those payments earlier than they’ll transfer ahead.

Some Republicans have stated they wish to see rather more excessive spending cuts throughout these measures, together with slashing Environmental Safety Company (EPA) funding, large cuts to baby care spending, and curbing meals help packages additional. Many within the social gathering are additionally all in favour of gutting the insurance policies from President Joe Biden’s signature Inflation Discount Act, including clawing back funding from every little thing from the IRS to the Power Division.

The total yr payments could possibly be a messaging car for a few of Republicans’ tradition wars and political priorities as nicely. The GOP has stated it gained’t again funding for any variety, fairness, and inclusion (DEI) authorities initiatives, for instance. Moreover, Ukraine help is poised to be some extent of competition as an increasing number of Republicans have turned towards offering extra monetary help to the nation in its protection towards Russia’s invasion. And funding for border safety is anticipated to be one other sticking level, with Republicans desperate to put aside extra assets for a border wall.

All of those are nonstarters for Democrats, who’ve included increases in EPA funding, Pell Grant funding, and tribal program assets as a part of their Senate payments. Biden has additionally requested a complete of roughly $100 billion in supplemental help together with $61 billion in Ukraine help, $14 billion in Israel help, and $9 billion in humanitarian help to Gaza, Israel, and Ukraine.

For now, the CR ensures there gained’t be any shutdown drama over the vacations, although there’s no such assure for January and February. “This was an important first step to get us to the subsequent stage in order that we will change how Washington works,” Johnson said.